The Problem With Facts

The problem with facts is that in this day and age they are not enough. My title for today is shamelessly plagiarised from an article by Tim Harford, originally published in the Financial Times.

I was born just before Christmas 1953. Way back then:

Scientists were publishing solid evidence of a link between smoking and cancer. From the viewpoint of Big Tobacco, more worrying was that the world’s most read publication, The Reader’s Digest, had already reported on this evidence in a 1952 article, “Cancer by the Carton”. The journalist Alistair Cooke, writing in 1954, predicted that the publication of the next big scientific study into smoking and cancer might finish off the industry.

It did not. PR guru John Hill had a plan — and the plan, with hindsight, proved tremendously effective. Despite the fact that its product was addictive and deadly, the tobacco industry was able to fend off regulation, litigation and the idea in the minds of many smokers that its products were fatal for decades.

Is the link with the 21st century assault on evidence based policy making by the Trump administration in the United States obvious to you yet? If not, Tim continues:

So successful was Big Tobacco in postponing that day of reckoning that their tactics have been widely imitated ever since. They have also inspired a thriving corner of academia exploring how the trick was achieved. In 1995, Robert Proctor, a historian at Stanford University who has studied the tobacco case closely, coined the word “agnotology”. This is the study of how ignorance is deliberately produced; the entire field was started by Proctor’s observation of the tobacco industry. The facts about smoking — indisputable facts, from unquestionable sources — did not carry the day. The indisputable facts were disputed. The unquestionable sources were questioned. Facts, it turns out, are important, but facts are not enough to win this kind of argument.

Metropolis III, Death & Taxes – Kasia B. Turajczyk (2009)
Metropolis III, Death & Taxes – Kasia B. Turajczyk (2009)

 

Please read the Tim’s article in its entirety, but towards the end he mentions that:

There’s a final problem with trying to persuade people by giving them facts: the truth can feel threatening, and threatening people tends to backfire. “People respond in the opposite direction,” says Jason Reifler, a political scientist at Exeter University. This “backfire effect” is now the focus of several researchers, including Reifler and his colleague Brendan Nyhan of Dartmouth.

All this adds up to a depressing picture for those of us who aren’t ready to live in a post-truth world. Facts, it seems, are toothless. Trying to refute a bold, memorable lie with a fiddly set of facts can often serve to reinforce the myth. Important truths are often stale and dull, and it is easy to manufacture new, more engaging claims. And giving people more facts can backfire, as those facts provoke a defensive reaction in someone who badly wants to stick to their existing world view. “This is dark stuff,” says Reifler. “We’re in a pretty scary and dark time.”

Is there an answer? Perhaps there is.

We know that scientific literacy can actually widen the gap between different political tribes on issues such as climate change — that is, well-informed liberals and well-informed conservatives are further apart in their views than liberals and conservatives who know little about the science. But a new research paper from Dan Kahan, Asheley Landrum, Katie Carpenter, Laura Helft and Kathleen Hall Jamieson explores the role not of scientific literacy but of scientific curiosity.

Unfortunately Tim provides no link to the learned article he references, but we can put that right! Here it is:

Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing: Curiosity and Information Processing

According to Kahan et al. in their introduction:

This article describes evidence suggesting that science curiosity counteracts politically biased information processing. This finding is in tension with two bodies of research. The first casts doubt on the existence of “curiosity” as a measurable disposition. The other suggests that individual differences in cognition related to science comprehension—of which science curiosity, if it exists, would presumably be one—do not mitigate politically biased information processing but instead aggravate it. The article describes the scale-development strategy employed to overcome the problems associated with measuring science curiosity. It also reports data, observational and experimental, showing that science curiosity promotes open-minded engagement with information that is contrary to individuals’ political predispositions. We conclude by identifying a series of concrete research questions posed by these results.

This all sounds curiouser and curiouser, so let’s go deeper down the rabbit hole shall we?

In less than two decades, politically motivated reasoning has assumed an imperial reach over the study of mass political opinion formation. It has driven to the periphery theories emphasizing rational choice dynamics, heuristic information processing, public-spirited idealism, and popular disengagement. It has colonized countless individual topics from group polarization to source-credibility effects, from biased information search to the effects of factual misinformation.

The final frontier that scholars have yet to fully chart, however, concerns individual differences. Who is most vulnerable to the tendency to selectively attend to information in patterns that reflect their commitment to ideologically and like-defined groups, and who is the least vulnerable?

In this article, we report a curious finding about politically motivated reasoning. Data we have collected suggest that this form of reasoning appears to be negated by science curiosity.

Perhaps there is a glimmer of light at the end of the long dark tunnel after all? Kahan et al. conclude:

These two forms of evidence paint a picture—a flattering one indeed—of individuals of high science curiosity. In this view, individuals who have an appetite to be surprised by scientific information—who find it pleasurable to discover that the world does not work as they expected—do not turn this feature of their personality off when they engage political information but rather indulge it in that setting as well, exposing themselves more readily to information that defies their expectations about facts on contested issues. The result is that these citizens, unlike their less curious counterparts, react more open mindedly and respond more uniformly across the political spectrum to the best available evidence.

whilst Tim Harford puts it this way:

Curiosity is the seed from which sensible democratic decisions can grow. It seems to be one of the only cures for politically motivated reasoning but it’s also, into the bargain, the cure for a society where most people just don’t pay attention to the news because they find it boring or confusing.

What we need is a Carl Sagan or David Attenborough of social science — somebody who can create a sense of wonder and fascination not just at the structure of the solar system or struggles of life in a tropical rainforest, but at the workings of our own civilisation: health, migration, finance, education and diplomacy.

Do you suppose that Dan Kahan is up to that job himself? Perhaps not, since his paper signs off as follows:

As we have taken pains to emphasize, this research remains at a formative stage. As always, there are unresolved questions. The goal of this article was to report the pleasure we took in observing these surprising results in the hope that doing so would motivate other curious researchers to join us in trying to answer them.

Perhaps its time to turn to Alice?

A Letter from Wonderland

Dear Alice,

I would like to let you know about the current state of affairs in our Wonderland.

We have a new queen and a new king. Actually it is a kind of confusing situation because The Queen and The King are the same person. HeShe looks like Shiva, a god with a thousand personalities. And it has become weirder and weirder because The Queen isn’t a ‘she’, she is a ‘he’. But this is an insignificant detail. HeShe loves to scream as often as possible and as loud as possible ‘OFF With His Head’, ‘Off With Her Head’ , ‘Off With Their Heads’.

And you do remember, I hope that you remember it very well, I am sure you do. The Queen had only one way of settling all difficulties, great or small. ‘Off with his head’, crying and shouting without even looking at them or looking around.
HeShe is not only using the old diversion of The Queen Of Hearts, heshe is also getting more and more crazy, crazier and crazier. Almost every day heshe is growing more and more unpredictable. The Queen is the centre of the Universe, it is all about her, her huge ago and the caprice of her whim.

Do you remember the flamingos? The Queen has found new mallets – they are THEM and the OTHERS. They very reliably try to escape and to fly away as far as possible. Every day the puppet soldiers are trying hard to find new OTHERS. I am wondering what heshe would start to use if they all were gone. The Queen has also found new croquet balls, they are not hedgehogs any more. There are all kinds, every day she chooses a new sort as it pleases her.

A Polish Fairy Tale – Kasia B. Turajczyk (2014)
A Polish Fairy Tale – Kasia B. Turajczyk (2014)

 

Yesterday I had a short encounter with the Caterpillar. He said this to me:

We are in a global war of ideas. It’s not meritocracy versus imagination but it is authoritarianism versus democracy .

You do remember him, do you not? It took him another 20 minutes to say something more. He put the hookah into his mouth and he was smoking and smoking and smoking again. After that he spoke once more.

When once the forms of civility are violated, there remains little hope of return to kindness or decency.

I think his words will puzzle you, because as you may remember there was not a lot civilisation here before. But that is a different kettle of fish. Apropos fish, they have all vanished from Wonderland. I wonder if they moved away of their own accord or if the flamingos helped them to disappear? It puzzles me.

I had also a short ‘tête-à-tête’ with the Hatter. He is very afraid, he is even considering leaving Wonderland. Can you imagine that? Wonderland without the Hatter.

Oh Alice, what will happen to us? We are all mad here. But are we going to be madder and madder and madder?

With much madness and  many growls,

The Cheshire Cat

Twitter Suspends @altHouseScience!

I’ve been enjoying some witty banter on Twitter with the folks from @altHouseScience for the past few days. Here’s an extract from The Hill they brought to my attention which I found particularly amusing:

However they seem to have been quiet for a while so this morning I investigated further. It seems the alternative House Science Committee have been summarily suspended by the powers that be at Twitter!

I’ve taken up the matter with Twitter management:

I haven’t had a reply yet though.

It will come as no surprise to our regular reader(s) that The Hill journalists are members of the long list in President Trump’s little black book of persona non grata, along with the once Great British Broadcasting Corporation:

Donald Trump’s War on Climate Science Continues

Not content with trying to muzzle the climate science sections of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA for short), the Trump administration in the United States is now going after the perhaps more familiar National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA for short) too. On February 16th the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology issued a statement from their Chairman, Lamar Smith. The phrase “climate change” wasn’t mentioned, but here’s an extract:

We stand at a crossroads. Sir Isaac Newton said, “I do not know what I may appear to the world, but to myself I seem to have been only like a boy playing on the seashore, and diverting myself in now and then finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary, whilst the great ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me.”

Today, as we consider the next steps of the space program, we are all like that boy – or girl.

Presidential transitions offer the opportunities to reinvigorate national goals. They bring fresh perspectives and new ideas that energize our efforts.

Now is the time to reaffirm our support for the bold visions and commitments that will shape America’s future in space.

The NASA Transition Authorization Act of 2017 is the culmination of many years’ discussions and hopefully will soon pass the Senate and House. This legislation has two goals. First, it reiterates the importance of maintaining NASA’s continuity of purpose.

Second, the bill allows the president to introduce a Fiscal Year 2018 budget request that reflects his priorities.

With a fresh perspective, the White House will be able to work with the new Congress to implement the goals and initiatives necessary to continue our leadership in space.

Do you get the idea yet? On February 17th Scientific American reported that:

Lawmakers are remaking NASA in order to leave parts of the agency’s earth science program untouched but remove its climate change research.

It’s still unclear exactly how lawmakers plan to transform NASA’s mission, but Republicans and Trump administration officials have said they want the agency to focus on deep-space missions and away from climate change research, which is a part of its Earth Sciences Division. That has created uncertainty about the fate of the Earth Sciences Division, which accounts for about $2 billion of NASA’s $20 billion budget.

At a House Science, Space and Technology Committee hearing yesterday, Chairman Lamar Smith (R-Texas) said he wants a “rebalancing” of NASA’s mission.

Specifically, that could mean NASA’s work on climate change would go to another agency, with or without funding, or possibly would get cut. Smith and other Republicans avoided laying out specifics but acknowledged that earth science at NASA would likely face some significant changes in the near future.

Also on February 17th the web site well known Donald Trump supporter Senator Ted Cruz published a news release which proclaimed:

Today, the U.S. Senate unanimously passed S. 442, The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Transition Authorization Act of 2017, which was introduced by U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), along with Sens. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.), John Thune (R-S.D.), Tom Udall (D-N.M.), Patty Murray (D-Wash.), and John Cornyn (R-Texas). The legislation provides stability for NASA to sustain and build upon existing national space investments designed to advance space exploration and science with an overall authorization level of $19.508 billion for fiscal year 2017.

America has a long history of leading the way in space exploration, which has also fostered extraordinary economic growth and job creation of the State of Texas and the entire nation,” said Sen. Cruz, the chairman of the Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness. “This bipartisan legislative achievement provides NASA and the future of the U.S. space program with the stability and certainty it needs moving forward with a new administration. I look forward to working with colleagues in both chambers and on both sides of the aisle to ensure that our nation’s new era of pioneers can continue to innovate and explore with clarity and purpose.”

This bill directs NASA to send humans to Mars, expand commercial space activity and ensures that work will continue on the next generation of rockets, engines and capsules that are currently being constructed in Florida and across the country,” said Sen. Nelson, ranking member of the Senate Commerce Committee.

Here is all 146 pages of The NASA Transition Authorization Act of 2017.

The term “Earth science” and the word “climate” are mentioned a grand total of zero times in the bill.

How Trump Won

A very interesting article has (re)appeared in Scientific American Mind:

Trump’s Appeal: What Psychology Tells Us

According to the Scientific American editor’s note:

All but the last section of this article was written before Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, making its insights all the more remarkable. It was updated for Scientific American Mind.

Please read the whole article, but to whet your appetite here’s a few salient points. The author’s set out their stall early on:

The inability of even the most experienced pundits to grasp the reality of Donald Trump’s political ascendency in the 2016 presidential race parallels an unprecedented assault on the candidate and his supporters, which went so far as to question their very grip on reality.

They go on to draw parallels between the rise to power of Donald Trump and that of Adolf Hitler in Nazi Germany, adding the caveat that:

We are not comparing Trump, his supporters or their arguments to the Nazis. Instead our goal is to expose some problems in the ways that commentators analyze and explain behaviors of which we disapprove. In 1934 Theodore Abel traveled to Germany and ran an essay competition, offering a prize for autobiographies of Nazi Party members. He received around 600 responses, from which he was able to glean why so many Germans supported Adolf Hitler. Certainly many essays expressed a fair degree of anti-Semitism and some a virulent hatred of Jews. In this sense, party members were indeed racists or, at the very least, did not object to the party’s well-known anti-Semitic position. But this is very different from saying that they joined and remained in the party primarily or even partially because they were racists. Abel discovered that many other motives were involved, among them a sense of the decline of Germany, a desire to rediscover past greatness, a fear of social disorder and the longing for a strong leader.

We would argue that the same is true of those who supported Trump.

The author’s then briefly outline their case:

To understand how Trump appealed to voters, we start by looking at what went on inside a Trump event. For this, we are indebted to a particularly insightful analysis by journalist Gwynn Guilford, who, acting as an ethnographer, participated in Trump rallies across the state of Ohio in March 2016. We then analyze why Trump appealed to his audience, drawing on what we have referred to as the new psychology of leadership. Here we suggest that Trump’s skills as a collective sense maker—someone who shaped and responded to the perspective of his audience—were very much the secret of his success.

As I said, please read the whole article, but here are the conclusions:

When we put it all together, these figures tell us something important about leadership in general and about the 2016 leadership contest. They underline the point that leadership is never about the character of individuals as individuals. This is the “old psychology of leadership” that our own theoretical and empirical analysis has called into question. Instead leadership is about individuals as group members—whose success hinges on their capacity to create, represent, advance and embed a shared sense of “us.”

Reflecting on the implications of this analysis for the specifics of this election, we can see that many Trump voters knew full well that their man was a reprobate, that they deplored his crudities and that they saw him as a risky choice. And yet in a world where the system is seen to be against “us” and where things appear to be driven in the wrong direction by “them,” the really irrational thing to do is to vote for the conventional candidate who represents sticking with that system.

Capiche?

[Edit – February 12th]

Thanks to a heads up from Neven in the comments below, an extremely pertinent documentary:

An “English language” version of the video can be seen at:

https://youtu.be/0nxDro6THUg

Alternative Facts Wetware™ Web Site Revealed

It’s February 9th 2017 and any number of worrying things are happening around Planet Earth at the moment.

Perhaps the most worrying of all is the advent of Donald Trump and his scorched Earth policy against rational decision making based on sound science. The latest of his attacks on United States “Climate and/or Environment” scientific agencies was hatched last weekend, and we saw it coming. Donald Trump has got the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration in his cross-hairs.

Meanwhile not so very long ago “Counselor to the President” Kellyanne Conway coined the immortal phrase “Alternative Facts”

Please see our “About #AFW™” page for much more background information, but at the very least please watch this video to discover how “The Land of the Free” has morphed into “TrumpLand” in a matter of weeks:

A show trial of the American Association for the Advancement of Science? Congressman Lamar Smith presiding!

Please feel free to share your thoughts in the space provided for that purpose below.